Humans are highly prone to overestimating the likelihood of rare events, such as shark attacks or winning the lottery. This tendency is known as “availability bias,” the inclination to judge the frequency of an event by how easy it is to recall examples from memory.
For example, if you’ve watched the movie “Jaws” or daydreamed what you would do with the Powerball jackpot, it will be quite easy for you to pull up vivid, emotional images of these events, making these rare events...
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